Распад СССР (English)

GLOBAL STRATEGY FOR THE DISINTEGRATION OF THE USSR

         Contemporary Humanitarian Studies, issue 5 for 2011, pp. 153-159.

Pashkov R.V., MSLA specialist

I present to your attention the project as one of the scenarios for the development of events during the perestroika period.

Top secret

One of 10 copies

Analytical Planning Group

Central Intelligence Agency

US administration

Committee on Reforms in the USSR

Council on Foreign Relations

Crisis Group of the Committee

Chiefs of Staff of the US Armed Forces

Washington, 1981

General situation.

         By the early 1980s, the Soviet Union was at the peak of its power and advancing on all fronts. The Soviet Navy had created a blue-water fleet, projecting its might across the world’s oceans. Parity in strategic offensive nuclear forces had been achieved, and the Soviet Army was stronger than ever. The Western world faced the prospect of losing the Cold War globally. Simultaneously, the global struggle for energy resources, whose availability is increasingly dwindling in Western-controlled territories, was intensifying. In this situation, the United States needed to assume uncompromising leadership in the Western world to counter the Soviet threat with all available means. Significant reform of the USSR was needed to reduce its global dominance and, at the very least, its disintegration into independent states. The latter would be the best solution. At the same time, destabilization of the USSR would lead to the disintegration of the Eastern Bloc in Europe and the elimination of the key pillars of the global socialist system.

1. ELEMENTS OF STRATEGY.

1.1. Foreign policy elements of the strategy:

         In its foreign policy, the new US administration will have to implement a course aimed at completely displacing the USSR from its sphere of influence in the world and, at the very least, the collapse of the global socialist system. This course must be extremely tough and uncompromising, without any concessions, even minimal, and accompanied by ever-increasing pressure in all areas of American foreign policy.

1.1.1. Collapse of the Warsaw Pact Organization.

         In Europe, the collapse of the Warsaw Pact is necessary to liberate Soviet European colonies from the yoke of communism. Increasing Western pressure will make simultaneous Soviet military intervention in two or three Eastern European countries impossible. Despite all communist efforts, the peoples of Eastern Europe look to the West with hope. The intelligentsia is entirely aligned with Western democratic ideas. By the early 1980s, communism as an ideology had lost its appeal in Eastern European countries and is perceived as the ideology of the oppressor, the USSR.

1.1.2. Liquidation of the world socialist system.

         The second foreign policy element of the strategy for the dissolution of the USSR is the dissolution of the global socialist system. Only after the dissolution of the Eastern Bloc can we speak of the global collapse of this system. The situation of countries with a socialist orientation toward the USSR becomes hopeless , and they are forced to implement democratic reforms in order to cooperate with the West. It is important to understand that not all countries of the socialist camp will disappear; for example, China, perhaps Vietnam, and a number of other countries with socialist elements will remain. The governments of countries with a Soviet orientation, namely Eastern Europe and Africa, will disappear primarily. The global socialist system has already lost its appeal as an anti-colonialist, anti-imperialist system against the West; even in countries with a socialist orientation, it is now perceived as dependent on the USSR.

1.1.3. The collapse of communism as a global ideology.

         On a global scale, we must achieve the collapse of communism as a competing global ideology. Communism is incapable of qualitative reform into a post-industrial society and represents the state capitalism of Soviet modernization under conditions of limited resources. Communism must be defeated, first and foremost, ideologically, as the attractive ideology of humanity’s eternal dream. Communism represents the failed hopes of the East. By the early 1980s, communism had become a completely marginal political phenomenon in the Western world, as best evidenced by the financial dependence of the communist parties on the USSR.

1.2. Political elements of the strategy:

         The political elements of the strategy for the dissolution of the USSR must include large-scale internal destabilization of the entire political organism of the USSR and its normal functioning. The complete historical failure of the Soviet project as a dead-end path of political evolution will be demonstrated. The USSR must be destroyed as a holistic geopolitical phenomenon, as a unique historical event that offers hope for the grandiose project of humanity’s dream of a better world on Earth.

1.2.1. Liquidation of the CPSU.

         The CPSU plays a leading and guiding role in Soviet society. The Communist Party is the backbone of the Soviet system; the party class stands above all others in the Soviet hierarchy, serving as the state-forming class. The Communist Party cements Soviet society, playing an integrating role at all levels of government. It was communism that made it possible to assemble the Russian empire under the new form of the USSR. Promoting the idea of multi-party politics in the Western sense will destabilize the role of the CPSU, and then, in a moment of crisis, completely destroy it through dissolution. It is essential to emphasize in every way the violation of the one-party system by democratic institutions and that it is unacceptable in modern society.

1.2.2. The collapse of the system of education of the Soviet person.

         An equally important political task in the dissolution of the USSR is the destruction of the integrated system of educating the Soviet citizen, from the Octobrists to leisure activities. This integrated system must be destroyed in all areas, undermining the socialization of the Soviet citizen. Socialization must be disrupted at all levels—from the shortage of children’s clothing to the totalitarianism of education. This system must be systematically undermined by all available means, such as propaganda promoting the Soviet way of life and the superiority of the Western way of life.

1.2.3. The destruction of the Soviet man.

         The key political objective is to destroy the phenomenon of the Soviet individual or the Soviet way of life. If this is achieved, the collapse of the USSR is inevitable, as its bearer, the citizen of the USSR, will disappear. This must begin by undermining the Soviet concept of Soviet history and Marxism-Leninism, destroying it through a struggle against the legacy of the past and the remnants of totalitarianism. It is necessary to shock the Soviet people by telling them they were deceived throughout the USSR’s existence and that only now will they learn the truth about their country.

1.2.4. Destruction of Soviet socialism.

         The Soviet economic machine is an autonomous, self-sufficient, and integrated economic mechanism, but it can be undermined by including Soviet enterprises in foreign markets. Capitalist economic methods will inevitably impact the USSR’s economy, forcing it to follow the path of reform. The greater the involvement of Soviet enterprises in Western markets, the sooner Soviet socialism will disintegrate. It is essential to qualitatively increase the integration of the Soviet economy into the Western world at any cost.

1.3. Ideological elements of the strategy:

         Communism has been defeated in the Western world, and it’s losing ground in the developing world. Now the time has come to defeat it at the very heart of communism—the USSR. Only defeating it at its very core can make us believe in victory in the Cold War. An ideological victory will mark the complete collapse of the communist idea in the eyes of the Soviet people, and then this threat will disappear forever.

1.3.1. Anti-communism.

         The most difficult ideological task is to instill anti-communism in Soviet society, which requires destroying the Soviet people’s worldview. A key factor is the worldview of the scientific and artistic intelligentsia as the primary bearers of democratic ideas. It is imperative to develop the superiority of democratic ideas—which are global, not just Western—over the totalitarianism of the USSR and its backwardness. Anti-communism will detonate all the long-standing problems of the USSR, which communism, as an oppressive ideology, had held back for a time. Only by winning over the intelligentsia with democratic ideas can the victory of anti-communism begin. Then comes the dominance of the democratic press and the self-organization of democratic forces.

1.3.2. Separatism (nationalism).

         After the collapse of the foundations of communism, the problem of nationalism among the conquered peoples of the USSR will immediately surface in the minds of Soviet citizens. Separatism will snowball. To accelerate this process, it is necessary to emphasize the colonial nature of the USSR’s policy toward the union republics and cultivate their inferiority within the USSR. The Baltic states and Western Ukraine could serve as testing grounds. Support for separatists should be framed as support for democratic processes and the democratization of the USSR.

1.3.3. Islamism.

         Finally, in the final stage, the Muslim regions of the Caucasus and Central Asia of the USSR must awaken. The withdrawal of Soviet troops as a result of the harsh US policy will be inevitable, and then the triumphant march of Islamist ideology in the USSR will begin. The key is to control the Islamist process and not allow it to spread beyond the borders of the USSR. The spread of Islamism will impose an unbearable burden on the USSR’s internal costs of suppressing it. It will all begin in Afghanistan and end in Kazakhstan.

1.4. Economic elements of the strategy:

         One of the integral elements of the strategy for the disintegration of the USSR is the disintegration of the Soviet economic system as a coherent, autonomous phenomenon. The Soviet economy is a real concept and can be defined as state socialism, where instead of many owners, there is only one owner—the state. Our task is not only the disintegration of the Soviet economy but also its disintegration as a coherent mechanism.

1.4.1. The collapse of oil prices

         The Soviet budget is heavily dependent on global oil prices. The USSR will attempt to modernize its electronics and military-industrial complexes by taking advantage of high oil prices. This must be prevented by slashing oil prices several times over. To achieve this, it is necessary to reach an agreement with Middle Eastern countries on a sharp increase in oil production in exchange for various preferential treatment. A collapse in oil prices will make it impossible to modernize the Soviet economy without serious democratic reforms.

1.4.2. Debt dependence

         It is also necessary to put the USSR on a debt loop in the event of a collapse in oil prices. A comprehensive system of lending to the USSR across all sectors of the economy must be expanded to a certain limit, but the size of the loans must not allow modernization without democratic reforms. The debt must be catastrophic, allowing the Western world to dictate its terms to the USSR regarding the democratization of Eastern Europe and the end of developing countries’ dependence on the USSR.

1.4.3. Destruction of the socialist economic system

         The Soviet economy must be destroyed as a specific system of economic ties between Soviet enterprises, reorienting them from their ties with each other to ties with Western enterprises. The system of enterprise oversight, the national accounting system, and the pricing structure must be destroyed. The socialist economic structure itself must be undermined, and constant pressure must be exerted on the USSR toward democratization through the creation of a class of small owners.

1.5. Cultural elements of strategy:

         A political and economic victory over the USSR alone is clearly insufficient; these victories must be complemented by a victory of Western culture over Soviet culture. Soviet culture as a coherent phenomenon must be completely destroyed as a totalitarian legacy of the Stalinist past. Soviet culture is subject to complete disintegration and destruction.

1.5.1. Culture shock.

         The destruction of Soviet culture must begin with culture shock. The complete superiority of the Western way of life must be demonstrated, its victory in everything. The culture shock must be all-encompassing and overwhelming. A complete clash of cultures must be demonstrated, demonstrating the overwhelming superiority of Western culture. The culture shock must evoke a total rejection of Soviet culture due to its utter backwardness.

1.5.2. Western pop culture .

         The primary weapon of victory in the cultural sphere is Western popular culture , or Western mass culture. Western culture must completely suppress the socialization of the Soviet people through 19th-century Russian classical culture and the Soviet historical tradition. This culture is completely capable of destroying Soviet culture. Western popular culture must first and foremost win the minds of young people as the future Soviet society; it is with the youth that we must begin.

1.5.3. The superiority of the West in everyday things.

         It is necessary to completely suppress the idea that Soviet household goods are of inferior quality, as a supplement to the perpetual shortage of Soviet goods for the population. We must introduce large-scale Western goods into the Soviet market; the quality of these goods must be simply incomparable. These interventions must be targeted and large-scale, and only in large cities, centers of discontent.

2. SOVIET ANTI-SYSTEMISM.

2.1. Democratic Western anti-systemicity .

         The first thing to emerge in the event of reforms will be democratic Western anti-systemism . The democratic intelligentsia will recklessly destroy everything Soviet, seeing in it a totalitarian legacy of the past. The intelligentsia’s sympathies for Western ideas must be unconditional and overwhelming. There must be no alternative for the intelligentsia; any patriotic movement as a counterweight to the democratic one must be suppressed.

         Democrats must suicidally attack everything Soviet, viewing everything Soviet as an obstacle to a democratic «bright future.» The ideal of democracy must attract democrats. Democracy must shine as a guiding star for the Soviet intelligentsia. The superiority of the democratic system and its naturalness to human nature must be constantly emphasized.

2.2. Eastern Islamist anti-systemicity .

         The next anti-systemic approach is Islamism. This project is the longest in terms of implementation. An alliance between Saudi Arabia and the United States will enable its implementation. Islamism must be directed against the USSR. This began with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. The struggle against the USSR in Afghanistan will be protracted and will allow Islamism to begin its triumphant march. The global Islamist project must be a controlled model for the destruction of Soviet society and will complete the disintegration of the USSR’s national outskirts.

         Neo-Wahhabism is chosen as the primary form of Islamism , as it is the most aggressive form of Salafism. Neo-Wahhabism will allow the radical branch of Islam to be adapted for the needs of destruction. It is Islamism that will lead to the reformatting of the Islamic space of the USSR. Islamist anti-systemic sentiment is the most uncompromising and must be controlled.

2.3. Separatist Western anti-systemicity .

         Finally, let’s consider separatist anti-systemic thinking . The erosion of Soviet structures will inevitably lead to separatism on the Soviet peripheries and attempts at revision. The Baltics and Western Ukraine, as regions of the USSR with the most Western cultural traditions, serve as testing grounds. Separatist anti-systemic thinking must be led, on the one hand, by the national intelligentsia, and, on the other, by the national union communist parties of the USSR.

         The separatists’ nationalism will destroy the USSR, making its revival impossible. The separatists’ Western anti-systemic stance must outweigh, in every respect, the benefits of the union republics remaining within the USSR. Separatism must be all-conquering.

3. STAGES OF THE COLLAPSE OF THE USSR.

3.1. Beginning of modernization.

         The USSR will soon face the need for modernization. The collapse of prices will necessitate limited democratic reforms. The West must do everything possible to push the USSR toward reform, even while recognizing their limitations. The key to reform is «loosening the screws.» This will be marked by a policy of media openness, economic reforms, and a reduction in tensions in international relations.

3.2. An attempt at accelerated development.

         The Soviet leadership, seeing the deteriorating foreign economic situation, will launch a series of reforms to accelerate the development of advanced economic sectors. All resources will be concentrated in a single center, but they will still be insufficient, as the Soviet economy has become accustomed to inertial development. The military-industrial complex will demand ever-increasing financial injections, which will not be forthcoming. The Soviet leadership recognizes the need for reform, but is powerless to implement it. Limited reforms are stalling.

3.3. Shock situation.

         The Western world then offers its assistance in modernization. A limited class of small landowners is formed under leasehold arrangements, and an attempt is made to expand the economic ties of Soviet enterprises. The Soviet economy begins to integrate into the Western market. Separatism grows amid the crisis of communist ideology, communism begins to decline, Western goods completely surpass Soviet ones as a result of large-scale imports, and Western pop culture is all-conquering.

3.4. Creation of separatist movements.

         The next stage will see the emergence of separatist movements in the form of Popular Fronts or popular movements. Separatism in the Baltics will be uncompromising, despite the full support of the Western world. Separatism must win in the minds of the people, and communism must fall. Separatism in the national outskirts must escalate, and national elites must openly declare their secession from the USSR.

3.5. The emergence of democratic anti-communism.

         Then, finally, democratic anti-communism will emerge in the major cities of the metropolis and citadel of communism – Moscow. The press will be reformed and become democratic. The wave of democratic movements will grow, the democratic movement will expand, and will gain limited representation in government bodies in the context of the first democratic elections.

3.6. Anti-communist reforms.

         Reforms are increasingly deepening, attempting to introduce elements of capitalism into a socialist economy. Limited reforms lead to distortions. The Western world offers shock reforms in a short period of time as an alternative to a slow economic course. Further reforms are anti-socialist and promote the ideas of a democratic world. Anti-communist reforms lead to the planned collapse of the USSR; it is important to prove that these reforms are the creation of democratic socialism.

3.7. The maturation of Islamism

         After this, Islamism takes center stage in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Islamists are merciless toward everything Soviet, bringing Islamism from Afghanistan. Islamist movements express all the problems of nation-building and propagate an ideology hostile to the USSR. Islamism will smash the USSR like a battering ram, and mass uprisings will become inevitable. Islamism will blow the USSR apart, completely burying the Soviet leadership’s efforts to stabilize the situation on the national outskirts.

3.8. The collapse of the world socialist camp.

         Ultimately, the collapse of communism leads to the disintegration of the global socialist camp. Socialist countries are embarking on rapid democratic reforms in the absence of the Soviet threat of intervention. Socialist-oriented countries in Africa and Asia understand the hopelessness of the current situation and the inevitable collapse of the USSR. This forces them to implement, albeit limited, reforms that lead to further democratization of public life. The global socialist system will fall before the USSR. Only its fragments will remain, which bear no world-historical significance.

3.9. Large-scale destabilization of the USSR.

         The combined effects of these factors are leading to a large-scale destabilization of the USSR. The country is in growing disarray, economic ties are disrupted, and the budget is shrinking. The military-industrial complex demands ever more funds, and foreign policy is collapsing. It is becoming impossible to pursue further ideologically motivated policies, and the need to recreate the USSR on a fundamentally different ideological foundation, with a different name and different elites, is becoming urgent. The USSR leadership proposes a new reform plan.

3.10. Attempt at restoration.

         Conservatives among the Soviet leadership attempt to save the USSR on its old foundations, but a government revolt breaks out among a section of the USSR’s leadership. Separatists on the outskirts and democrats in the center form a united front. Military units, bolstered by propaganda, refuse to use their weapons, and the revolt fails. The restoration fails, and the collapse occurs instantly. All Soviet governance structures collapse immediately, and the Communist Party of the Soviet Union is banned.

3.11. The collapse of communism.

         Following the collapse of modernization attempts and the complete rejection of the restoration of the USSR under continuous Western pressure, swift and immediate democratic reforms must follow, with a complete rejection of all Soviet attributes. These reforms must be comprehensive and total, destroying everything Soviet. Russia must join the free world and participate in it on the basis of free competition. Rapid reforms will mark the West’s permanent victory over the Soviet system.

Conclusion.

         Victory over the USSR will enable the Third World Cold War to be won and the Western world to survive as a geopolitical and cultural entity, with undisputed global dominance. Victory is precisely the question of the West’s survival. By defeating the USSR, the West will eliminate the world’s second superpower and gain unfettered access to energy resources. This global struggle for a «place in the sun» must be won at any cost. The choice is ours or theirs; there is no other option , and Western leaders must be clear on this point.