Умиротворение (English)
CONCEPTS OF PACIFICATION
Contemporary Humanitarian Studies, issue 3 for 2015, pp. 1 46-152.
Pashkov R.V., MSLA specialist
1. Failed state
A failed state is a state in which the effectiveness of public administration is sharply reduced due to a combination of various social and economic factors, leading to the disruption of key state institutions. Pressure from ethnic minorities in areas of compact settlement can increase sharply during periods of increasing institutional degradation, resulting in a loss of control by the central government.
In the issue of the German Society for Foreign Policy Internationale Politik , dedicated to the topic of failed states (No. 6, for 2003 г., international version, Russian language) Ulrich Schneckener ( Ulrich Schneckener , then a research fellow in the Global Issues research group at the Berlin-based Science and Politics Foundation, defined the characteristics of failed states, as well as states close to this state.
He writes:
» Fragile statehood is primarily understood as the loss or failure of state institutions to acquire the capacity to govern in their core areas of competence. This refers to states whose institutions are unable or no longer able to provide certain basic services to the population . Three functions of the state can be identified, which form the key sphere of modern statehood.
Applicable to each function There are a number of indicators that allow us to measure the degree of erosion of statehood .
Monopoly on the use of force: central to this is control (by the state) over territory through the state monopoly on the use of force . This refers to the exercise of state governance to control resources and the use of a state army or, respectively, police to resolve local conflicts or to disarm private entities that use force. Indicators of the loss or absence of this function are the following: lack of control over the entire state territory; lack of control over external borders; the large number and political significance of private entities that use force (including organized crime, such as drug trafficking); the decomposition of the state security apparatus («privatization from above»); the arming of the population; regular cases of lynching; high and rising crime rates. The more indicators are «triggered,» the more likely it is that the monopoly on the use of force is eroding.
Public services: Of central importance are public services in various areas (welfare state, labour market, education, healthcare, environmental protection, infrastructure development), as well as mechanisms for distributing economic resources – both areas are typically financed by public revenues (customs duties, taxes, fees, etc.). Indicators here include systematic exclusion of certain groups of the population from economic resources; deep economic and/or monetary-political crises (e.g. pension system crisis); colossal tax or customs arrears, as well as multiple taxation (by public and private entities); weak redistribution; insignificant public expenditure; growing gap between rich and poor; mass unemployment; impoverishment of the rural population (deepening disparities between town and country); deterioration of infrastructure, education and healthcare systems, rapid environmental degradation.
Political structure: This area includes forms of popular participation in politics and decision-making processes, the stability of political institutions, and the quality of the rule of law and public administration . Indicators here include the strengthening of authoritarian or oligarchic decision-making structures, repression of the political opposition, falsification and manipulation of election results, the systematic exclusion of certain groups from political participation (e.g., minorities), gross human rights violations (torture), the lack of an independent judiciary, the collapse of public administration, and a high degree of corruption.
Now based on the three functions of the state Three types of unstable statehood can be distinguished , with particular importance given to the monopoly on the use of force.
1. Weak states
When characterizing the type of weak states ( weak States ) assume that the state monopoly on the use of force and tax collection still exists to a significant or lesser extent. However, there is also a deficit in public services or deficiencies in the political system. Examples of these, as of 2003, include states in sub-Saharan Africa (Zimbabwe, Kenya, Uganda), Latin America (Haiti), Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan), and Southeastern Europe (Macedonia, Albania), which have deficiencies in both areas. This group also includes most Arab or, respectively, Muslim countries, such as Pakistan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and Iran.
The examples provided make it clear that this category includes numerous semi-authoritarian or authoritarian regimes, including those such as North Korea, Cuba, Turkmenistan, and Belarus. They typically enjoy a degree of stability, as they are able to maintain a monopoly on the use of force (partly through the use of draconian measures), but they exhibit significant deficiencies in their political structure and, in most cases, are limited in their ability to provide public services to the entire population. These regimes cannot be expected to develop sustainably; rather, they are expected to slowly or rapidly disintegrate (for example, after the death or overthrow of the dictator).
2. States that are degrading or failing to perform their functions
To the type of states that are degrading or failing to cope with their functions ( failing (Socialist states ) are states in which the monopoly on the use of force and the monopoly on taxation are severely impaired or, respectively, only partially exist, while the state retains some capacity to govern in the performance of one or two other functions. Examples of these states, as of 2003, include Colombia, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Indonesia, Georgia, Sudan, and Nepal. In these cases, governments are unable to control the entire territory of their country, including its external borders. They are forced to contend with a large number of private entities that use force, particularly separatist movements. However, other spheres of government function more or less reliably.
3. Failed or collapsed states
In states that are classified as failed or collapsed ( failed states ), none of the three functions is present to any significant degree, so that one can speak of a complete collapse of statehood. Examples of this as of 2003 include Somalia (since 1992), Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Central African Republic, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Iraq. For a time, this category also included Angola, Bosnia, Tajikistan, and Lebanon. Ulrich Schneckener discussed this in his 2003 article in the journal Internationale Politik .
2. Revolutions as a mythologem and in reality
Communist resistance
The attempted communist revolution in Italy in the 1970s as a mythologem is the struggle of the vanguard party of the working class for the rights of workers, which had as its goal the construction of a state of the oppressed class through military pressure on the government.
The attempted communist revolution in Italy in the 1970s was, in reality, a relentless urban guerrilla war waged by the underground Communist Party of Italy, waging a war of attrition and constantly carrying out acts of sabotage, subversion, and terrorism, considering itself the vanguard party of the working class, which has the right to speak in its name.
The Vietnamese anti-colonial national revolution as a mythologem is the victory of the national liberation movement under the leadership of the Communist Party of Vietnam at the head of the People’s Front and the decolonization of Vietnam with the end of the power of the French colonial administration.
The Vietnamese Anti-Colonial National Revolution is in reality an insurgent army of North Vietnamese insurgent forces (and in the last stage of the war in South Vietnam as well) under the leadership of the Communist Party of Vietnam, existing under conditions of extreme centralization of power and a one-party communist dictatorship with a command economy while attempting to actively oppose the Western coalition in order to maintain its presence in Vietnam.
Attempted Communist Revolution in Peru » Sendero» Luminoso as a mythologem is an attempt by the poorest oppressed strata of the peasantry and urban proletariat to seize power under the leadership of the Communist Party of Peru as a result of a victorious insurgent war against a corrupt and repressive government.
Attempted Communist Revolution in Peru » Sendero» » Luminoso » is, in reality, an attempt at military victory by an ultra-radical communist group that launched a large-scale insurgency in rural areas and implemented the concept of urban guerrilla warfare with ever-increasing repression against the same proletariat and peasantry, who were increasingly expressing dissatisfaction with the implementation of the extreme dogmas of Stalinist-type communist ideology.
The Cuban socialist revolution as a mythologem is an explosion of popular discontent and anger against the pro-American regime pursuing a colonial policy, as a result of a liberating national revolution initiated by the national resistance of rebel forces.
The Cuban Socialist Revolution is, in reality, the seizure of power by the Communist Party of Cuba, which created a rebel army as a real fighting force in the context of a spontaneous social explosion of the masses, prepared by the insurgent war, which ultimately led to a one-party communist dictatorship with a command economy.
Nationalist resistance
The Tamil secession attempt from the state of Sri Lanka is a mythological claim—the right of the oppressed Tamil minority to establish its own independent statehood, building its own armed forces and putting forward a plan for an independent Tamil Eelam state. This right is based on the right of peoples to self-determination.
The attempted secession of Tamils from the state of Sri Lanka is in reality a military attempt by radical groups among the Tamil population to separate, who began a multi-year insurgency in the jungle, violating generally accepted norms of warfare, which led to numerous civilian casualties and ethnic cleansing.
Irish national resistance in Ulster as a mythologem is the national resistance of the Irish people in the struggle against the British colonial administration for the unification of the entire Irish people through armed struggle as a result of a general uprising and constant pressure from rebel groups.
The Irish National Resistance in Ulster is in reality an urban guerrilla war of various rebel groups organizing constant attacks against the British military-administrative presence with elements of direct terrorism and an attempt to ultimately overthrow the legitimate government of Ireland with the goal of declaring a «United Republican Ireland».
The Chechen national revolution as a mythologem is the victory of the Chechen national liberation movement over the occupying power of the center, culminating in the creation of its own national state.
The Chechen national revolution is, in reality, an armed seizure of power by nationalist-minded radicals from among the politically active minority of Chechens, in the context of the collapse and degradation of the Union government and with the direct connivance of a number of senior Russian officials, which culminated in the temporary creation and functioning of a nationalist quasi-state with an aggressive growth of the power component and a focus on armed confrontation with Russia.
Religious resistance, particularly Islamist
The Islamic anti-Shah revolution in Iran as a mythologem is a desperate uprising of the people under the leadership of spiritual leaders to build a just and righteous Muslim society with Islamic power, overthrowing the hated regime of the Shah as a protege of the West.
The Islamic anti-Shah revolution in Iran is, in reality, a self-organized uprising of various social groups dissatisfied with social policy and the lack of political reform, led by the Shiite clergy, which ultimately seized power and built a state in which the ruling class is the clergy.
The Islamic revolution during the Arab Spring as a mythologem is the fall of ruling regimes as a result of the lack of popular representation and the socio-economic disadvantage of the main segments of the population, which leads to a change in the political elite and the formation of a more democratic government for all Muslims.
The Islamic revolution during the Arab Spring is, in reality, a self-organized pressure from urban masses and youth, exploiting the state’s failings in social policy and the corruption of the political elite. As a result, the effectiveness of public administration is sharply reduced, leading to the collapse of the central government or the collapse of the regime. Ultimately, however, a large-scale destabilization of an Islamist nature is underway, with radical Islamist elements attempting to seize power on a wave of popular discontent.
3. Methods of forceful influence
Methods of forceful influence of a state on another state:
1. A rebellion in a region inhabited by a national minority through the cultural and ideological reformatting of this community and the creation of a situation in which such reformatting is not considered a threat to the state by the central government until a certain point.
2. Social explosion in a number of regions as a result of the inept policy of the center and obvious mistakes in directly provoking mass protests as a struggle for their rights.
3. The emergence of social groups opposed to the government, which corrode another project from within, covertly resisting its implementation.
4. Provoking the state to intervene to protect supposed interests, while in reality a hostile coalition is being forged under the guise of universal human values. The point is that our state will expend colossal resources to bring new territories into a project that will prove futile, while the other state will expend minimal effort, simply maintaining tension.
5. A coup d’état by a loyal section of the political elite—whether it’s the «English party» or the «German party»—is irrelevant. What’s important is the fact that the state is drawn into the orbit of another state, and this elite group, having seized power, begins to copy the other state in every way as an ideal to be achieved through catch-up development.
4. The Basic Concept of Peace
The main concept of pacification during counterinsurgency warfare in Western political science is considered to be the concept of a “unified nation state”.
The concept’s essence lies in two things: social solidarity , meaning that everyone participates in the war against the rebels, plus broad social modernization, meaning that the rebels are deprived of social support from the poor sections of the population.
The reforms include:
1. Modernization of political institutions with the aim of expanding the participation of all social groups in governance state.
2. Expanded social assistance programs for the poor.
3. Strengthening state control over society through the involvement of social groups in various state management programs.
4. Discrediting the very idea of liberation for which the rebels are fighting. The state can achieve all this through reforms.
Social assistance programs, coupled with empowerment at the local level, are considered key. These two elements are considered applicable in any society. The issue of political modernization may be considered irrelevant in contexts of traditional power relations , especially in societies with a developed tribal structure.
It is obvious that, from a state-legal point of view, the concept of a “united national state” can be based not only on the concept of a “nation-state”, but also on the concept of a “state as a big family”, that is, it can be most successfully implemented in a mono-national society.
This concept is being developed for application in completely different societies and with different initial conditions as a ready-made law enforcement model. While a complete European-style modernization of all aspects of life in this society is certainly desirable, partial modernization is also possible, as long as the main thing is to achieve results.
5. The first model of pacification: communalist
The model of pacification through the construction of a communal state – the union authorities are relying on the creation of a communal mono-ethnic state of a given ethnic group, where the state is like a family, where a strong religious element is present, but within a manageable framework.
Chechnya is radically different from Dagestan, despite the fact that they are two constituent entities of the Russian Federation located adjacent to each other. Dagestan is much more like a union center, an attempt at consensus among a corrupt political elite.
Chechnya is a state within a state, let me say – a state of religious utopia of a communal type of mono-ethnic society.
In essence, what is happening here is the creation of a solidaristic corporate state with active state paternalism.
If you look at Chechnya, this is precisely the model that was applied: the central authorities created a «black box» situation and gave carte blanche to do whatever they wanted, and as a result, Kadyrov built precisely the kind of state that has so far been impossible to build on a federal scale.
There is a noticeable reliance on the desire to establish religious legitimacy for the Chechen republic’s authorities through appeals to Sufi Islam. The Chechen state’s European façade should not be deceiving; the institutions of the Caucasian Imamate are being reproduced, but this time loyal to Russia. The head of Chechnya is seen as the father of the people, the parliament as the Congress of the State of the Imamate, district prefects as naibs, and the mufti of the republic as sheikh-ul-Islam.
This model can only be implemented within a single ethnic community, not within a mono-ethnic society. This ethnic group must be governed as an extended family.
It is important to understand that this model is the most successful of all today.
Let us also take the example of Malaysia.
Communist resistance in Malaysia was suppressed only after the predominantly Chinese composition of the rebels was highlighted and communalist Muslim Malay parties were formed. Today, Malaysia is home to four communities, strictly separated but united in a political union for the shared destiny of the state.
6. The second model: modernization according to the European model
The model of pacification through European transformation of all aspects of life—union authorities implement consistent and broad reforms, beginning with political ones. This includes the creation of an autonomous region and its parliament with the goal of modernizing all aspects of the minority’s social life.
The second model is widely represented in Europe, but it cannot be considered entirely successful. Examples include Northern Ireland and the Basque Country in Spain. The conditions are largely similar: prolonged suppression of a national minority, deprivation of its rights of representation, a developed national consciousness among the minority, and a willingness to wage urban guerrilla warfare.
The central government is ultimately carrying out a full-scale European modernization of the problematic region, changing all aspects of the life of the ethnic minority, including the granting of expanded real autonomy with the right to form its own law enforcement forces and representation at the union level.
However, it’s clear that in all such cases, we’re talking about a certain freezing of the conflict, not its final resolution. The contradictions still haven’t been completely resolved, even though the center is doing everything it can to adapt the minority to political life within a single, large state.
7. The third model: cautious modernization of traditional society
The model of pacification through limited reforms – the federal authorities rely on various social assistance programs and the expansion of traditional institutions of power with limited political modernization through the creation of national administrative units at the local level.
The third model assumes limited modernization within a traditional society. Such changes are typically implemented in Eastern societies. Consider the example of Myanmar. It’s representative, but we note that conflicts between several ethnic groups within the state have not been resolved, yet there is no direct threat of state collapse.
The state is implementing extensive social assistance programs for ethnic minorities, subsidizing agriculture and traditional crafts. Autonomous national units are also being established, national local self-government is being introduced, and extensive negotiations are underway with politically capable minority groups.
There is also an element of permanent minority insurgency in the life of the state of Myanmar; the state strives to push the rebels to the periphery of political life, to separate them from the national peasantry.
There is a clear trend toward a diminishing risk of state collapse, but the insurgency remains elusive. The rebels continue to exert harassing military pressure on the autonomous regions’ national administrative units.
Thus, this model does not give a 100% result.
However, one can cite the successful suppression of communist resistance in the Dhofar region of Oman in the 1970s. This resistance was not national, but communist. The Sultan of Oman failed to modernize political life; a parliament and political parties never emerged, but skillful military planning and social welfare programs did the trick.
8. The rebel quasi-state as a criminal state
It’s important to understand that the rebel state that emerges from the ruins of a failed union state can be called a real state. However, it often lacks a legal character. Union authorities, however, typically advance the concept of a criminal state as the statehood of the rebels.
The criminal nature of such a state can manifest itself in the form of:
- The hypertrophied stake and development of the security structures of such a quasi-state .
- The extreme inadequacy of the judicial system being created and the decorative nature of the representative body of political dialogue between the rebels and the union center.
- The rebels support the drug trade as a source of income, and often the rebels have no other choice, since the farmers grow opium crops.
- Ethnic cleansing and signs of slave trade among the rebels.
- In general, the quasi-state has the character of a cancerous tumor, destabilizing the normal legal order in the union state.
